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Everyone is genius – but only in hindsight. That’s one of the themes of Nassim
Nicholas Taleb’s new book called The Black Swan. An acclaimed expert on the
science of uncertainty, Taleb analyses the impact of highly improbable events on
our lives. Before the discovery of Australia, for example, people in the Old
World were convinced that all swans were white. That piece of conventional
wisdom went off the window the day they sighted the first black swan.
According to Taleb a Black Swan event has three main qualities: First, it’s an
outlier – something that lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because
nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it
carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature
makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it
explainable and predictable.
By that token, the BSP elephant’s recent electoral triumph is a Black Swan. Of
course, it caught scribes and psephologists completely off-guard. But that’s
hardly stopped them from holding forth on the rationale of the rainbow
coalition! Conversely, the highly expected not happening is also a Black Swan.
Taleb goes on to argue that a small number of Black Swans explain almost
everything in our world from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics
of historical events, to elements of our personal lives. More debatable is his
corollary that as the world gets more complex, the effect of Black Swans is
increasing, so that ordinary events which we study and discuss and try to
predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly inconsequential.
Contrast this with the disruptive power of the Super Swan or the Parama-Hamsa in
Eastern tradition. He is not found in many places except one or two rare corners
of the world, says the Hamsopanishad. These spiritual masters open your
eyes to the miraculous nature of reality beyond conventional wisdom. The Indian
swan or Hamsa is also a religious pun that echoes to the great Advaitic insight Tat tvam
asi (You are that) every time you breathe! For it’s compounded from the ingoing
Aham (the individual I) and the outgoing Sa (the universal That). The Supreme
Swan is one who realizes the unity, they Lord tells Narada in the Upanishad.
With no need for other rites and rituals, the stainless Parama-Hamsa soars over
the worldly waters, ever free.
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